• Home
  • About
    • Our Advantage
    • Meet the Brokers
    • FAQ Using a Broker
  • Pre-Approval
    • Pre-Qualification Form
    • Loan Application
    • Documents Required for a Home Loan Mortgage
    • Credit >
      • Imperfect or Bad Credit Loans
      • Fico Score
      • Good Fico Score
      • How Fico Scores Work
      • Fico Scores Ignore
      • How Fico Scores Help
      • Fico Tips
  • Loan Types
    • What is an Arm?
    • Conventional Loan
    • FHA Loan
    • VA Loan >
      • VA Loan Eligibility
      • VA Refinance IRRL
    • HARP
    • Jumbo Loan
    • Hard Money Loans
    • Reverse Mortgage >
      • What Is A Reverse Mortgage
      • Benefits Of A Reverse Mortgage
      • Reverse Mortgage VS HELOC
      • Loan Process
      • Reverse Mortgage Presentations
      • Reverse Mortgage Quote
  • Buyers/Sellers/Homeowners
    • Refinance >
      • What Not To Do When Refinancing
    • First Steps in Homebuying >
      • Down Payment Strategies
      • Rent vs. Buy
      • 6 Benefits to Owning Your Own Home
    • After You Sign the Contract
    • The Loan Process
    • Mortgage Payment
    • FSBO
    • Preparing for an Open House
  • Blog
  • Support
    • Property Search
    • Property Tax Information
    • Mortgage Glossary
    • Mortgage FAQs
    • Useful Links
  • Contact
  • Reviews
Effective Mortgage Company
Follow Us

Effective Mortgage Company

Blogs on Mortgages, Markets And Other Items Of Interest. Stay Up To Date!

Blog

Market Update

10/20/2015

0 Comments

 
Sept housing starts and permits, the only data today. Prior to the 8:30 release the 10 yr note rate traded at 2.05% +2 bps and 30 yr FNMA Nov coupon down 9 bps frm yesterday’s close. Sept starts were thought to be up about 2.0%, as reported up 6.5% to 1206K units. Building permits expected unchanged frm August declined 5.0% to 1106K units. August starts were revised better, frm 1126K to 1132K. Permits for August revised lower to 1161K frm 1170K. Sept starts were all in multi-family, +18.3% while single family starts soft at +0.3%. Sept multi-family permits declined 12.1%, single family permits -0.3%. Not sure how to take this; year-on-year, starts are up a very striking 17.5%, permits, however, up only 4.7%.
 
Yesterday the NAHB housing market index increased 3 points to 64. Sales expectations jumped to 75 in October from 68. Current conditions rose to 70 from 67.Apparently the NAHB was all juiced up over multi-family improvements, but the report this morning doesn’t confirm the enthusiastic NAHB. Building permits are suggesting the enthusiasm may be overdone somewhat. The drop in permits is puzzling and a concern. How can the NAHB be so optimistic when building permits declined 5.0% with multi-family down 12.1% and single family down 0.3%? It is about starts, the future isn’t that optimistic.
 
At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 42, NASDAQ -6, S&P -3. The 10 yr note yield up 4 bps to 2.07%. 30 yr FNMA 3,5 coupon -16 bps frm yesterday’s close and -11 bps frm 9:30 yesterday.
Nothing left on the calendar today. Fed speakers went back into their shells now until after next week’s FOMC meeting. The meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday isn’t likely to increase the FF rate. Today’s starts and permits another report that keeps the Fed continuing to talk but not acting. Traders in the FF futures still betting that a rate increase won’t occur until next March. 

The International Monetary Fund
lowered its 2015 global growth forecast yesterday to 3.1% from its 3.3% estimate in July, citing China as well as weakness in Europe and Japan and the slowdown in countries producing commodities. The IMF, the Fed, the World Bank continue to revise downward their forecasts for the last 18 months. Nevertheless the bullish sentiment in US equities remains firm. Quarterly earnings are not as strong as Q2 so far. Main Street media and many Wall Street pundits believe the worst is over… that we’re well on the road to recovery… that we’re at the start of a multi-year bull market. Be very careful in that belief and idea. 

The 10 yr is at 2.08% +5 bps frm yesterday’s close, MBS prices continuing to slip frm 9:30 levels.
We don’t think there is much to it, mostly some selling after the 10 has failed to crack 2.00% as we have been noting. Traders don’t like hanging around too long when any market resists further advances, we have stayed flat and haven’t floated recently because of the resistance at 2.00% on the 10 yr. MBS prices and rates follow risk-free treasuries. The FOMC meeting next week, the ECB meeting this Thursday will keep the bond and mortgage markets frm improving much. Thankfully we don’t have to suffer more Fed officials until next Wednesday. Near term, we suggest keeping locked; the longer outlook though should see lower rates; let the market tell you when and don’t bet on it yet. 

This Blog is for informational/advertisement purposes only and is not considered an offer to extend credit. Products are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein may not be applicable to every situation or jurisdiction, and we urge you to consult your professional advisor prior to acting on information contained herein. The content, accuracy and opinions expressed herein are not verified or endorsed by the sponsor hereof.
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Categories

    All
    DIY
    FHA
    Holiday Tips
    Market Update
    Money Tips
    Monthly Newsletter
    Mortgage Knowledge
    Mortgage News
    Mortgage Programs
    Reverse Mortgage
    Seller Information
    VA

    Archives

    September 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    August 2018
    March 2018
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    August 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    February 2015

    View my profile on LinkedIn

Our Services

Purchase Loans
Refinance Loans
Pre-approvals

Company

About Us
Contact Us
Our Blog

Support Page

FAQs
Mortgage Glossary
Mortgage Calculator
Property Tax Information
Credit Information
Useful Links
Property Search

Contact Us

Picture

Effective Mortgage Company BRE# 01264208 NMLS # 252973