This morning May personal income and spending; income up 0.5% about what was thought, spending though was strong, up 0.9% the best in six years and better than 0.7% expected. The outperformance of personal spending relative to personal income is encouraging because it indicates more consumer confidence and a weakening of the trend towards higher saving that has been dragging on economic growth in the first half of 2015. The PCE expenditures increased 0.3% overall and +0.1% on the core. Yr/yr PCE +0.2%; yr/yr core +1.2%. PCE is what the Fed looks at most on inflation. Weekly jobless claims up 3K to 271K; 16 weeks under that 300K pivot.
Not news that most attention is on Greek creditors and what Greece itself can actually do about it. The IMF has stood strong until now, signs coming from meetings suggest the IMF may relax a little on demands to cut pensions. Talks remain at a standstill and we expect that will continue until next Monday, the day before Greece has to pay the IMF. A betting man would go with another extension when the clock ticks to mid-night.
German Consumer Climate indicator was lower than expected, falling to 10.1 in July from 10.2 in June. Spain's Producer Price Index declined 1.4% yr/yr in May, more than expected and more than the 0.9% yr/yr fall in April
The DJIA opened +59, NASDAQ +14, S&P +5. At 9:30 the 10 at 2.39% +1 bp, 30 yr MBS price -14 bp frm yesterday’s close and +1 bp frm 9:30 yesterday. The stock market looking increasingly weaker, not biting on better economic reports better than expected. Global equity markets increasingly softer. Greece still rules but watch the stock indexes.
Yesterday Treasury sold 5 yr notes, the demand was not quite as firm as demand for Treasuries over the last month. This afternoon Treasury will sell $29B of 7 yr notes.
Once again no significant movement in the US rate markets, although the 10 yr is up 1 bp and MBS prices slightly weaker after improving yesterday. As long as the Greek issue is unresolved the interest rate markets and global equity markets are being led by the nose on about any news regardless of what the news is.
Everything continues to bearish on our technical work. Have to have a sustainable trade below 2.30% to turn us around.